Employment: signals are picking up, SMEs adjust

The Swiss job market is once again sending some positive signals, without erasing the tensions accumulated in recent months. The latest available indications point to a slight recovery by autumn, while the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs prepares a presentation of the July unemployment figures. For SMEs, the issue is not just statistical: it directly affects recruitment plans, payroll, work organisation and cash flow.

In an environment where some sectors are starting to plan hires again and others remain struggling, leaders must avoid two opposing reflexes: recruiting too quickly without visibility, or freezing positions while skills become scarce. A good reading of the labour market becomes a management tool, just like a liquidity budget or a margin table.

SECO puts July figures under the spotlight

SECO has announced that it will present the latest unemployment figures in Switzerland for the month of July on Thursday, 6 August 2026. The exchange with the media is scheduled from 9:00 to 9:45 via Microsoft Teams, according to the invitation published by the Confederation. This meeting should also allow for an assessment after the hypercare phase related to the introduction of the new unemployment insurance payment system, SIPAC 2.0.

For a company, these monthly data are not only used to monitor the general state of the economy. They provide clues about the availability of the workforce, pressure on wages and candidate behaviour. An increasing unemployment rate can widen the recruitment pool in certain professions, but it does not guarantee that the sought-after profiles are available. Conversely, a recovery in hiring intentions can quickly reactivate competition between employers, particularly for qualified technical, commercial or administrative roles.

The research file indicates that in February 2026, the unemployment rate in Switzerland stood at 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 points compared to the previous year. This trend reminds us that the restart remains fragile. From a fiduciary's point of view, this argues for salary budgets built with several scenarios: stabilisation of staff, partial replacement, gradual hiring or temporary use of external resources.

The KOF barometer suggests improvement, but not a boom

According to elements relayed by AWP and Zonebourse, the KOF employment barometer rose to 2.1 points in the third quarter, after 1.6 points in the second quarter, revised figure. The signal is positive, but it remains measured. The 4500 companies surveyed in July reported activity still declining: the corresponding sub-indicator slipped from 1.9 to 1.7 points. However, the three-month outlook has improved, with an indicator rising from 1.2 to 2.5 points.

In other words, the present remains mixed, but the employers surveyed are looking a little less bleakly at the coming months. The same survey indicates that companies are now more likely to consider job creation than cuts. For an SME, this type of indicator should be read as a signal of anticipation, not as a guarantee. It can justify reopening a key position, restarting paused interviews or preparing a job description, while keeping strict control over the full cost of the position.

This full cost is not limited to the gross salary. It includes employer social charges, mandatory insurances, possible additional coverages, recruitment costs, equipment, software licences, training and supervision time. A moderate employment recovery can therefore improve business prospects while increasing cash outflows before the additional turnover is collected. This is often where planning with the fiduciary becomes decisive: integrating hiring into a cash flow plan avoids confusing operational need with financial capacity.

Trade, industry, construction: very uneven signals

The announced recovery is not uniform. Retail emerges as one of the most visible points of improvement: its indicator rebounded from -3.1 to 2.9 points, returning to positive territory for the first time since the second quarter of 2024, according to data cited by Zonebourse. Wholesale trade and manufacturing also show modest improvement, while construction remains strong in terms of employment. Conversely, catering remains under pressure, with an employment indicator at -8.8 points.

These sectoral disparities are essential for SMEs. A company active in trade will not make the same decisions as a restaurateur, an industrial subcontractor or a service company. Where order books are filling up, the priority may be to secure skills before competitors. Where demand remains hesitant, it may be more prudent to adjust hours, review existing contracts or organise internal versatility rather than permanently increasing the payroll.

Total employment figures point to progress, but also gradual. In the first quarter of 2026, Switzerland had 5.537 million jobs, 26,100 more than in the same period of 2025, an increase of 0.5%. The tertiary sector accounted for most of this growth, with 25,000 additional jobs, or +0.6%, reaching 4.409 million jobs. Vacant positions increased by 5.0% compared to the previous year.

For employers, more vacant positions often mean longer recruitment times and higher expectations from candidates. It then becomes risky to manage hires in urgency. An SME that waits for an employee to leave before drafting an advert starts at a disadvantage. Conversely, regular planning of needs, even simple, allows identifying critical functions, necessary duplications and tasks that can be automated, outsourced or redistributed.

Temporary work becomes a valve to test the recovery

The temporary labour market offers another interesting indicator. After twelve consecutive quarters of decline, interim mission hours increased by 1.3% in the first quarter of 2026, according to data relayed by Organisator regarding the Swiss Staffingindex. In a cautious recovery phase, this trend is consistent: companies seek flexibility before turning a temporary need into a permanent position.

For an SME, temporary work can be useful during a peak in orders, a replacement, a limited-time project or uncertainty about demand. But it should not be treated as a solution without a framework. Costs must be compared to the full cost of a permanent commitment, employer responsibilities must be clarified and operational integration must be organised. A poorly prepared temporary mission can be costly if the person does not have access to the necessary information, tools or instructions.

Accounting and payroll must also follow. Agency invoices, cost centre allocations, possible provisions and project margin tracking allow knowing if this flexibility truly improves profitability. In some cases, temporary work secures a business opportunity; in others, it masks a permanent under-sizing of the team. The difference is rarely seen in turnover alone: it appears in margin, overtime, absenteeism and service quality.

AI and transversal skills change the profiles sought

The employment recovery does not mean that yesterday's positions will return identically. The research file notes that artificial intelligence is beginning to influence the market, particularly in administrative and technological sectors, where a decrease in job offers has been observed. The extent of this effect remains uncertain, but the signal deserves the attention of leaders.

In an SME, AI often translates into tools capable of accelerating certain tasks: sorting information, drafting drafts, automating controls, assisting customer service or supporting document management. This does not necessarily eliminate a position, but it changes the content of the work. Employees must understand the tools, verify results, protect data and maintain professional judgement. This is why transversal skills are gaining importance: analytical ability, collaboration, communication, adaptability and sense of priorities.

Studies cited in the file, notably those by Adecco and the University of Zurich, highlight a growing demand for these skills. For a fiduciary or an SME, this changes the way of recruiting. The diploma and technical experience remain important, but they are not always sufficient. An employee capable of learning, documenting a process, cooperating with multiple professions and questioning a routine can create more value than a strictly specialised but less adaptable profile.

Practically, continuous training becomes a management decision. It must be budgeted, planned and linked to concrete needs: digitisation of invoicing, improvement of reporting, securing HR data, automation of repetitive tasks or better coordination between sales and administration. Before recruiting, a company can also ask if internal upskilling would meet the need with less financial risk.

The Swiss job market thus seems to be entering a less defensive, but still selective phase. The expected figures from SECO and the signals from KOF will help refine the diagnosis. For SMEs, the answer does not lie in a single instruction. It consists of linking each HR decision to cash flow, margins, employer obligations and the skills truly needed. In a cautious recovery, the advantage will go to companies that prepare their recruitments before the urgency, without losing sight of the full cost of each choice.