Nuclear power: the employment risk that is causing concern among SMEs

The debate over a return to nuclear power in Switzerland is no longer just a matter of energy policy. It now affects the order books of solar installers, engineering firms and renovation companies – and, by extension, staff planning in many SMEs.

A study by the Zurich University of Applied Sciences, commissioned by the Swiss Energy Foundation, estimates that a shift back towards nuclear power could threaten up to 16,000 jobs in the renewable energy and construction sectors. This figure, which – like any projection – is open to debate, should be treated with caution. But it highlights a very real situation for business leaders: regulatory uncertainty can be enough to delay investments, thereby holding back sales, commitments and projects that have already been budgeted for.

A political signal that could already put orders on hold

Since the adoption of the Energy Strategy 2050 in 2017, Switzerland has banned the construction of new nuclear power stations, whilst maintaining existing facilities. However, the situation has taken a new turn: in June 2026, the National Council voted in favour of lifting this ban, whilst calling for clarification on funding. According to Le Temps, parliament has adopted the Federal Council’s indirect counter-proposal to the ‘Stop the blackout: Electricity for everyone at all times’ initiative, and a coalition comprising, in particular, the Greens, the SP and the PVL has launched a referendum.

For an SME, the key issue is not whether a power station will actually be built tomorrow. The immediate risk stems rather from the signal sent to the market. When public policy becomes uncertain, property owners, local authorities, industrial firms and investors may postpone their decisions: waiting for new regulations, delaying the installation of a solar panel system, reviewing an energy-efficiency project, or renegotiating a construction schedule.

This wait quickly has an impact on business management. An installer who was planning to take on staff, a construction firm counting on renovation contracts, or an engineering firm that had sized its teams based on an energy portfolio may have to revise their budgets. The effects are not merely commercial: they affect wages, cash flow, payments to suppliers, social security contributions and the ability to finance equipment.

Solar and construction jobs at the heart of the alert

The study cited by Blick and Le Temps quantifies the risk precisely. According to its authors, simply lifting the ban on building new nuclear power stations could put between 5,800 and 9,500 jobs at risk over the next five years, and up to 10,600 jobs over ten years. If an additional power station were planned or built, the number of jobs at risk would reach between 10,000 and 16,000 over ten years.

The sectors affected are not limited to solar panels. *Le Temps* also mentions home automation and energy-efficient building refurbishment. For the solar sector, the study anticipates a 64 per cent fall in the number of full-time equivalents by 2035 compared with a scenario without a new power station, from 20,700 to 7,400 jobs.

For a trust company or a finance manager, these projections should not be treated as a definitive accounting forecast. Rather, they serve as a stress scenario. What happens if orders fall, if decision-making times are prolonged, or if clients demand greater contractual flexibility? In SMEs providing technical services, a fluctuation in workload quickly turns into a staffing problem. Salaries remain payable, social security contributions are linked to the wage bill, vehicles and machinery must be depreciated, and workshop rents do not disappear simply because of a slowdown in orders.

The issue of employment is also a qualitative one. The authors of the ZHAW study estimate that the jobs created by a nuclear project would not offset those that would be lost or not created in the solar and construction sectors. Their argument is that nuclear power would rely more heavily on imported technologies and skills, whereas solar power and renovation rely more heavily on regional businesses. For a network of SMEs, this distinction is crucial: local jobs linked to the installation, maintenance or refurbishment of buildings directly benefit subcontractors, suppliers and local businesses.

The economic counter-argument from nuclear power advocates

However, the debate is not simply a matter of lost jobs versus jobs saved. Nuclear power advocates also highlight the industrial value chain. An analysis by BAK Economics for economiesuisse estimates that the construction of a new EPR-type power station, due to become operational in 2050, would generate 1.6 billion francs of added value per year and create more than 2,900 jobs in Switzerland. According to the same analysis, the construction phase would account for 7.4 billion Swiss francs of national added value, representing 51 per cent of the project’s total cost. Revenue from direct taxes would amount to 95 million Swiss francs per year during the plant’s operational life.

These figures offer a different perspective for businesses. Some SMEs could find opportunities in civil engineering, security, logistics, maintenance, engineering, technical inspections, industrial IT or support services. A major infrastructure project generally attracts a wide range of subcontractors, with high standards in terms of quality, documentation, compliance and traceability.

However, these markets are not accessible to all businesses. An SME accustomed to installing solar panels in private homes or carrying out building renovations does not automatically have the certifications, track record or financial capacity to enter the nuclear sector. Payment terms, guarantees, insurance, contractual requirements and dependence on a major client can alter the risk profile. Before targeting this type of contract, a comprehensive margin analysis is required: administrative costs, deployment of qualified staff, investment in training, tied-up cash flow and the risk of penalties.

Budgets for 2026 and beyond: factoring in uncertainty without panicking

For SMEs operating in renewables, construction or energy efficiency, the immediate challenge is to avoid basing a budget on a single political trajectory. A prudent financial plan can incorporate several scenarios: maintaining the current pace of orders, a gradual slowdown, the postponement of public or private projects, or, conversely, an acceleration should there be political opposition to a return to nuclear power.

From an accounting perspective, this means closely monitoring leading indicators: quotations sent but not signed, conversion rates, requests for postponement, cancellations, levels of advance payments, and payment collection times. A fall in orders is not always immediately reflected in turnover if there are still a large number of projects in progress. It first becomes apparent in the sales pipeline, then in staff planning, before affecting cash flow.

Payroll deserves particular attention. Before making long-term commitments, a company should check whether the workload is based on firm contracts or on clients’ intentions. Temporary contracts, overtime, subcontracting and in-house training can offer a degree of flexibility, but each solution has implications in terms of employment law, social security and organisational arrangements. In the event of a significant slowdown, measures such as reduced working hours may be considered, but their eligibility must always be assessed on a case-by-case basis.

Self-employed workers are also affected. A fitter, an energy adviser or an architect specialising in renovation may depend on a steady stream of small commissions. If clients are waiting for the outcome of a referendum or new federal decisions, the risk is not merely a drop in annual income: it is the mismatch between fixed costs and cash inflows. In this context, a cash reserve, strict monitoring of debtors and clear terms for advance payments become management tools, not mere administrative details.

Grants, taxation and investment: the lifeblood of the business

The ZHAW study also highlights a possible impact on building renovation programmes, due to increased political pressure on energy efficiency grants. For businesses, this adds a layer of uncertainty: many renovation projects rely on a combination of economic incentives, technical requirements and public funding. If clients fear changes to funding arrangements, they may bring a project forward to lock in current conditions or, conversely, wait for clarification.

From a financial management perspective, investment decisions must therefore be supported by a methodical approach. Purchasing equipment, strengthening a team or renting new premises may be justified if order books are strong. However, when the market is heavily dependent on the energy policy framework, the company should document its assumptions and retain some room for manoeuvre. Decisions on depreciation, bank financing, VAT on investments and the planning of tax instalments must remain consistent with realistic forecasts, rather than being based solely on the most favourable scenario.

Finally, the nuclear debate highlights a broader issue: energy policy has become a factor in business management. It influences market opportunities, the skills required, the value of stock, financing needs and employment prospects. Whether one is in favour of or opposed to nuclear power, an SME cannot ignore this transition risk.

Prudence therefore lies in translating the national debate into internal dashboards: which contracts depend directly on solar power or energy-efficiency refurbishment? Which customers are sensitive to subsidies? What proportion of turnover could be deferred? Which roles are essential, and which need to remain flexible? The answers will vary depending on the canton, the sector and the cost structure. But one thing is already clear: even before a new power station breaks ground, the return to nuclear power may weigh on the economic decisions of Swiss companies.