Supply Remains Stable, but Cost Pressures Persist for Swiss SMEs

Switzerland’s supply of petroleum products is secure for the time being, but the war in Iran has already shifted the focus of economic risk. According to the Federal Office for National Economic Supply, petroleum products and crude oil destined for the Swiss market remain available and transport routes can be used. For businesses, therefore, the message is not to panic. It is to prepare.

The main concern lies not so much in an immediate disruption as in the build-up of tensions: slowed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, high European demand, logistical constraints on the Rhine, vessel availability, rail performance, and refineries affected by the heatwave or maintenance work. For a Swiss SME, this could mean more volatile energy costs, more fragile delivery times and margins that are harder to maintain.

No shortages forecast, but limited visibility on fuel supplies

In its assessment, the Federal Office for Economic Supply states that the petroleum products and crude oil required by the Swiss market are currently available. Assuming that importers’ orders are delivered as planned, supplies should be secured until the end of July for all petroleum products. The authority points out, however, that it is not possible to say with certainty what the situation will be in August, as planning for the oil market for the following month takes place in the second half of the current month.

This wording deserves to be interpreted correctly. To say that supply is guaranteed until the end of July does not mean that a shortage would then begin. It means that operational visibility is limited, in a market where shipments, prices, port availability and transport routes are constantly being reorganised. This is an important distinction for finance departments: the risk to be factored into budgets is not only the physical availability of a product, but also its price and the time it takes to arrive.

The Strait of Hormuz remains at the heart of the problem. Following the signing of an Iranian-American declaration of intent providing for peace negotiations within 60 days, this waterway has been at least partially reopened to shipping. However, repeated attacks on ships are keeping traffic at a level well below pre-war levels, according to the AEP. Moreover, it takes several weeks for a commercial vessel departing from the Persian Gulf to reach a European port, even before the detailed distribution of its cargo can begin. Even if the political situation were to improve, a return to normal logistics would therefore not be immediate.

The AEP also notes that certain energy infrastructure in the war-torn region has been severely damaged, particularly liquefied gas facilities. Repairs could take months, or even years. For Swiss companies, this serves as a reminder of an often-overlooked reality: the country’s supply chain depends on long, specialised and vulnerable international supply chains. Switzerland may have reserves, crisis management mechanisms and experienced stakeholders at its disposal; it cannot, however, cut itself off from global markets.

Petrol, diesel, heating oil: the risk is already reflected in prices

The first consequence for SMEs is evident in costs. According to data reported by PME.ch, global prices for Brent and WTI crude oil have risen by 17–18 per cent since the start of the conflict, with an impact on prices at the pump in Switzerland: the price per litre of unleaded 95 has risen on average from 1.64 to 1.72 francs. For a transport company, a tradesperson with several vehicles, a maintenance firm or a business reliant on frequent deliveries, this sort of price movement can quickly weigh on the bottom line.

The AEP, however, emphasises a key point: its remit concerns supply in the event of a shortage, not price control. If the Confederation releases compulsory reserves, the products are not sold at a preferential price set by the state. They are sold on the market through the usual channels, at market prices. Petrol station operators therefore continue to set their prices according to standard market mechanisms. For an SME, this means that any public intervention may help ensure availability, without guaranteeing a reduction in costs.

Mandatory reserves constitute Switzerland’s safety net. They are intended to address or mitigate a severe shortage. Generally, their theoretical coverage is three to four months. The AEP states that mandatory kerosene reserves currently cover around 83 days, compared with the target of 90 days, whilst the volumes of heating oil, petrol and diesel exceed the target levels. These figures should be interpreted with caution: they are based on the theoretical assumption of a total absence of imports and unchanged consumption. However, experience shows that imports can often continue, even if only to a limited extent, and that consumption tends to fall during periods of shortage.

For administrative and financial managers, the practical lesson is clear: energy budgets should not be treated as a fixed line item. It may be useful to review cash flow assumptions, identify contracts sensitive to fuel prices, check indexation clauses with customers and suppliers, and document any additional costs. This work is not particularly spectacular, but it can prevent rising costs from being discovered too late, at the time of interim financial statements or bank renegotiations.

European logistics is becoming the area to monitor closely

The war in Iran is not the only source of tension. The AEP also highlights European factors that directly influence Swiss supply: drought, low water levels in the Rhine, vessel availability, rail performance, and restrictions at refineries due to the heatwave or maintenance work. None of these factors is currently causing any supply restrictions, but the authority warns that the situation could change rapidly, particularly for petrol and diesel.

The Rhine, the rail network, refineries and ports form a single system. When one of these links slows down, the pressure shifts to the others. A Swiss company that relies on raw materials, industrial components or imported goods may suffer the indirect effects of a tight oil market even if it does not purchase oil itself. Carriers pass on their costs, suppliers extend their lead times, and it becomes more expensive to build up safety stocks.

In this context, procurement management deserves to be moved up a notch in management’s list of priorities. This does not necessarily mean overstocking, which ties up cash flow and can create other risks. Rather, it is a question of mapping out critical dependencies: which products come from far away, which have only one supplier, which deliveries are essential for production, and which customers would be affected first by a delay. An SME can also ask its suppliers for more frequent updates on delivery times, or plan simple alternative arrangements where possible.

The AEP also points out that Switzerland is not bound by the European Union’s energy solidarity, as it is not a member. It remains, however, interested in European coordination, given that supply chains and markets are closely intertwined. For businesses, this sentence sums up Switzerland’s position well: the country has its own instruments, but its economy operates within a continental logistics framework.

Electricity and gas: next winter is factored into the calculations

Oil is not the only issue. According to the research report, the Federal Electricity Commission has pointed out that the war in Iran is creating uncertainty over gas availability, which could affect the stability of Switzerland’s electricity supply next winter. The Association of Swiss Electricity Companies has also expressed concerns regarding gas availability and the security of the electricity supply.

The link between gas and electricity is not always obvious to an SME that simply pays its energy bill. However, on European markets, gas can play a role in electricity generation and in maintaining the balance of the system. Tension in the gas market can therefore feed through to electricity prices or perceptions of supply risk. For energy-intensive businesses, as well as shops, workshops, offices and IT service providers, this uncertainty complicates planning.

The most effective measures are often the most straightforward: analysing consumption, identifying avoidable peaks, reviewing energy contracts, planning for renewals, discussing matters with your supplier, and quantifying the impact of a price rise on profit margins. Businesses with sensitive processes – such as continuous production, a cold chain or critical digital systems – would be well advised to review their business continuity plans. These steps must be tailored to each individual case; they are no substitute for specialist advice, but they provide a solid basis for discussion with a trust company, an energy consultant or an insurer.

Carbon neutrality, exports and investment: the risk goes beyond the fuel bill

The crisis is also affecting businesses through regulatory channels. The Federal Council has examined the implications of the neutrality law on exports to states involved in the Iranian conflict. On 20 March 2026, it decided that the export of military equipment to these countries could not be authorised for the duration of the conflict. Current authorisations and exports of other goods are regularly reviewed by an interdepartmental group of experts to ensure they comply with neutrality law.

For the majority of SMEs, this issue does not affect day-to-day operations. However, for exporting companies, suppliers of technical components, industrial subcontractors or firms operating within sensitive supply chains, it calls for caution. Compliance is not limited to the final product: it may involve the intended use, the customer, the country of destination, export documentation and contractual commitments. In a changing geopolitical environment, a case-by-case assessment has become essential before committing to delivery times or confirming an international order.

The climate is also weighing on investment decisions. According to the Swiss Confederation’s SME portal, the Raiffeisen SME PMI index rose by 1.5 points between February and March 2026 to reach 55.0 points, but the geopolitical context is beginning to put the brakes on Swiss SMEs’ investment plans. This is a typical sign of periods of uncertainty: business activity may remain strong, whilst management delays expenditure, tests various scenarios or demands a faster return on investment.

The right response is not necessarily to put everything on hold. Rather, it involves distinguishing between investments that build resilience — such as energy efficiency, supplier diversification, the digitalisation of procurement processes and cash flow management tools — and those that increase dependence on a single market assumption. In an SME, this distinction must be made using realistic figures, taking into account hidden costs: transport, energy, storage, working capital financing, late payment penalties and the ability to pass on price increases.

The war in Iran thus serves as a reminder of a fundamental truth that years of stability had sometimes pushed into the background: supply is not just a matter of stock levels, but of timing, price, contracts and coordination. Switzerland has the tools to cushion the impact of a shortage, but businesses remain on the front line when it comes to managing their procurement, margins and commitments. In the coming weeks, the right approach will be less about anticipating the worst and more about reducing blind spots.