Economic and financial monitoring in Switzerland: what SMEs need to keep an eye on

Introduction

For a Swiss SME, economic and financial monitoring is not a theoretical exercise reserved for large companies. It helps to make better day-to-day decisions: setting prices, planning investments, negotiating with suppliers, anticipating cash flow requirements or adjusting a business strategy. In an environment where economic indicators can change rapidly, having a structured understanding of the situation becomes a vital management tool.

Recent developments call for precisely this kind of proactive caution. Swiss growth remains positive, but several indicators point to a slowdown. Internationally-oriented businesses are particularly exposed to trade tensions, customs duties and political uncertainty. Conversely, low inflation may give the impression of stability, even as margins, order volumes or payment terms may be deteriorating in certain sectors.

For business leaders, the self-employed, finance managers and trustees, the challenge therefore lies in translating macroeconomic information into concrete decisions. A growth figure, a PMI index or an announcement on tariffs does not automatically tell you what to do. They must be interpreted in the light of the business model, the customer base, the cost structure and the degree of dependence on exports.

This article offers a practical guide to monitoring the economic and financial situation in Switzerland, based on the information available in the research dossier. The aim is not to predict the future, nor to provide definitive recommendations. Rather, it is to help SMEs identify key indicators, understand their potential implications and organise a useful, regular and actionable monitoring process.

What are we talking about?

Economic and financial monitoring involves systematically tracking information likely to influence a company’s operations. It covers the general economic climate, confidence indicators, cost trends, financing conditions, export markets, policy decisions, regulatory changes and sector-specific signals. For an SME, this must remain pragmatic: it is not about accumulating reports, but about identifying information that could affect sales, margins, investments or organisational structure.

Several organisations contribute to this analysis. The Swiss Confederation publishes economic analyses and forecasts. SECO plays an important role in analysing the macroeconomic effects of new legislative proposals and in implementing the Act on Reducing Regulatory Costs for Businesses. This regulatory dimension is significant: an administrative rule, a compliance requirement or a change in trade relations can have a direct impact on costs and competitiveness.

Banks, trade associations, chambers of commerce and specialist institutes also provide useful indicators. A PMI index, for example, seeks to measure the momentum of economic activity based on information reported by businesses. When it falls below the growth threshold, it may signal a contraction or slowdown in business activity. For an SME, this type of indicator does not replace internal figures, but it does allow the business to compare its own perception with a broader trend.

Finally, financial monitoring must be linked to internal management. A business may keep track of economic news whilst remaining vulnerable if it fails to relate this information to its order books, pending quotes, stock levels, payment terms or fixed costs. The right question is therefore not just: ‘What does the economic climate tell us?’, but also: ‘How does this affect our business?’

What the facts tell us

Recent data paint a picture of a Swiss economy that continues to grow, albeit at a moderate pace. According to the research report, Switzerland’s real gross domestic product grew by 1.4 per cent in 2025, which is below its long-term average of 1.8 per cent. This discrepancy indicates that economic activity has not come to a standstill, but is developing against a backdrop that is less favourable than the historical norm cited by the source.

As for SMEs, the Raiffeisen SME PMI fell to 48.4 points in May 2026. The report states that this marked the first time that year that the index had fallen below the growth threshold. This signal warrants the attention of businesses, as it reflects a deterioration in the business climate amongst small and medium-sized enterprises. Exporting SMEs appear to be particularly affected: only 15 per cent of them anticipated a sustained recovery in their order books in the second half of the year, according to the data reported.

Inflation, meanwhile, appears very low in the available data. The inflation rate in Switzerland stood at 0.2 per cent in 2025, down from 1.1 per cent in 2024. For businesses, this may limit certain general pressures on prices, but it does not mean that all costs are stable. Sector-specific costs, such as wages, raw materials, logistics or compliance costs, may evolve differently from the general index.

Trade tensions also play a central role. The report states that in August 2025, the United States imposed tariff barriers of 39 per cent, which were subsequently reduced to 15 per cent in November. Against this backdrop, 27 per cent of Swiss SMEs reportedly saw a decline in their turnover. The Swiss Confederation, through its Expert Group on Economic Forecasts, has revised downwards its growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, in light of the increase in US tariffs and a climate of persistent uncertainty.

Business perceptions confirm this cautious outlook. According to swiss.export and Kearney, 70 per cent of Swiss SMEs regard foreign policy as the main economic risk, an increase of 29 percentage points compared with 2024. At the same time, 48 per cent of businesses are concerned about the lack of clear prospects regarding agreements with the European Union. For its part, the CCIG observes an economic slowdown in 2025, particularly for companies operating internationally, as well as ongoing tensions in the labour market.

Practical implications for an SME or a self-employed person

For an SME, moderate growth rarely manifests itself uniformly. Some businesses will continue to post strong results thanks to a solid market position, recurring contracts or a client base that is largely unaffected by economic conditions. Others will quickly feel the effects of the slowdown through a drop in requests for quotations, more difficult negotiations or postponed purchasing decisions. The first practical step is therefore to monitor internal indicators more closely, rather than just turnover already invoiced.

Exporting companies are the most directly affected by trade tensions. An increase in customs duties can make an offer less competitive in a foreign market, reduce profit margins if the company absorbs part of the cost, or prolong discussions with customers. Even when an SME does not sell directly to the United States, it may be affected indirectly if its customers, distributors or suppliers are exposed to that market. Market monitoring must therefore cover the entire value chain, not just direct sales.

For the self-employed and service providers, the effects may be more diffuse. A slowdown among their clients may delay projects, reduce budgets or increase pressure on fees. Sectors such as consultancy, construction, industrial subcontracting or business services may see early warning signs emerge before they are clearly reflected in the overall statistics: requests becoming more sporadic, projects being put on hold, slower approval of quotations, or longer payment terms.

Low inflation must not lead to a relaxation of management discipline. When demand slows, margins may shrink even if overall prices remain stable. Fixed costs weigh more heavily when volumes fall. Businesses should therefore analyse profitability by product, customer, market or sales channel. Growth in turnover can mask insufficient profitability if it is based on discounts, higher logistics costs or less tightly controlled production lead times.

Finally, pressures in the labour market call for careful HR management. Whilst certain sectors may be slowing down, key talent may remain difficult to recruit or retain. For an SME, losing a core skill during a period of uncertainty can undermine operational performance. Economic monitoring must therefore also inform decisions regarding staff planning, in-house training and recruitment priorities.

Areas of concern and uncertainties

The first area of concern relates to international trade relations. Tariffs, trade agreements and foreign policy decisions can change rapidly. The report shows that US tariff barriers already fluctuated between August and November 2025. For a business, this means that a margin assumption, an export price or a market strategy may become obsolete more quickly than anticipated. Contracts, delivery terms and adjustment clauses therefore warrant particular attention.

The second factor to monitor is the potential discrepancy between national indicators and sector-specific realities. A rise in real GDP does not guarantee a favourable situation for all sectors. Conversely, a negative confidence indicator does not mean that all businesses must put their projects on hold. Economic conditions must be analysed by sector, by region, by customer type and by degree of international exposure. An SME focused on a stable local market will not necessarily face the same situation as a manufacturer reliant on export orders.

Growth forecasts are also a source of uncertainty. The Swiss Confederation has revised its forecasts downwards for 2025 and 2026, but the actual extent of the slowdown for each individual company remains difficult to gauge. Forecasts are scenarios built on the information available at a given point in time. They help in preparing decisions, but they must not replace a company’s own sensitivity analysis.

The labour market remains another sensitive issue. The CCIG highlights persistent pressures, which may complicate recruitment plans, even during a period of more moderate growth. An SME must therefore avoid two extreme reactions: hiring too quickly on the assumption of an immediate recovery, or cutting back on essential skills at the risk of losing operational capacity. The right balance depends on cash flow, the order book, organisational flexibility and strategic needs.

Finally, regulatory developments must remain under close scrutiny. SECO emphasises the objective of effective regulation that encourages innovation and growth whilst reducing costs for businesses. However, for an SME, the practical impact will always depend on the applicable legislation, the canton, the sector and the specific circumstances. Professional advice may be required before any major decision is taken.

What to do in practice

The first step is to set up a simple and regular monitoring system. An SME does not need an economic analysis department to take effective action. It can identify a few reliable sources, assign responsibility for monitoring to one person or a small group, and then schedule a regular review with senior management. The aim is to translate the information into management questions: should prices be adjusted, budgets reviewed, certain suppliers secured, sales efforts stepped up, or an investment put on hold?

It is then advisable to link external monitoring to internal figures. Key performance indicators to track may include quotations sent out, conversion rates, confirmed orders, margins, late payments, stock levels, billable hours or fixed costs. These factors enable a change in trend to be detected at an earlier stage. A decline in the order book, for example, may be more revealing for an SME than a macroeconomic indicator published with a time lag.

For companies with exposure to exports, a market-by-market analysis becomes essential. It is necessary to identify the countries most vulnerable to customs duties, political changes or foreign exchange risks, and then assess the potential impact on prices and margins. Diversifying sales channels can reduce dependence on a single market, but this approach must be planned with caution: new partners, sales costs, compliance, logistics and contractual terms must be examined before committing.

Cash flow management also warrants greater attention. In times of uncertainty, delays in decision-making or payments can create strain even when the company remains profitable on paper. It is useful to prepare several internal scenarios: stable business, a limited slowdown, or a more pronounced decline in orders. For each scenario, management can identify deferred expenditure, priority investments, funding requirements and the commercial measures to be implemented.

Finally, it is important to know when to seek professional advice. An accountancy firm, a financial adviser, a tax specialist, a solicitor or an expert in international trade can help assess the impact of a regulatory change, an export contract, a cost restructuring or an investment decision. Decisions relating to tax, social security, employment contracts, customs or legal structure must be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. Market monitoring raises the alarm; professional analysis underpins the decision.

Key takeaway

Economic and financial monitoring must become a standard part of management practice, not something to be consulted only occasionally when the news is bad. Recent data show that Switzerland remains strong, but is facing moderate growth, trade uncertainties and specific challenges for companies operating internationally. For an SME, the right response is not to panic, but to prepare methodically.

• Monitor a few reliable indicators: the Swiss economic climate, the SME PMI, inflation, trade policy announcements, sector-specific information and signals published by recognised economic players.
• Systematically compare external monitoring with internal figures: order books, margins, pending quotes, payment terms, stock levels, fixed costs and team workload.
• For exporters, analyse exposure by market and by customer in order to anticipate the potential impact of customs duties, political uncertainties and changes to trade agreements.
• Prepare several cash flow and profitability scenarios, distinguishing between essential expenditure, investments that can be deferred and commercial measures that can be implemented quickly.
• Do not interpret indicators in isolation: low inflation, positive growth or a falling PMI must be viewed within the context of your sector and your business model.
• Consult a professional before making any major decisions regarding taxation, contracts, financing, customs, staff or legal structure, as applicability always depends on the specific circumstances.